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Saturday Nov 01, 2008

Barack Obama is losing his mojo and John McCain is closing hard in the final days of the best presidential election the Democrats & their big media special interests ever tried to purchase.





Watching Obama on the stump over the past couple days it's become clear.


First in Florida. Then in Missouri and continuing through Indiana.


He knows. His pollsters know. Bill Clinton knows. Rachel Maddow knows.


Barack Obama is losing his mojo.


Having surrendered the facade that he's not a socialist, Obama now jokes about "spreading the wealth" and complains that McCain is talking about it. But, after all, it was Obama, speaking to Joe the Plumber, who first began explaining his Ayers + Wright + Khalidi shaped Marxist views of the economy, when he (Obama) told Joe he wanted to spread his wealth around. Then, again, on ABC, Obama reaffirmed his intentions on doing so. Then, as the undecideds and broader electorate began to truly tune in to the details of the closing campaign, the American people heard Obama further elaborate, in a 2001 interview, his views on "redistributive change" and "economic justice".


While Obama and Co. internally fret and publicly joke about these matters, they have doubled down in arrogance. Obama's 30 minute infomercial lowered his $250K threshold for a "tax cut" to $200K per family while Joe Biden explained the amount was really $150K and now New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson clarified it's actually $120K for individual families and small businesses. Now the true Obama + Pelosi + Reid figure - $42,000 per anum - is clearly in focus. And, surprise, that's the level of income that both Obama and Biden and Pelosi and Reid defined as being "rich" before the start of the election and voted repeatedly to raise taxes on the middle class.


Obama's team keeps up the "inevitability" narrative by announcing Rahm Emanuel will be Obama's White House Chief of Staff and kicked unfriendly reporters off the campaign plane.


Obama is ratcheting up the rhetoric, pitching there are only days left before he begins to "change the world" and "totally transform this country" when most Americans would be content with simply resolving our financial + energy crisis and keeping the country safe from terrorists and other world despots Obama has promised to meet without preconditions.


Which brings us to Friday.


The last day of the last week before the election.


The day when a number of pollsters release their best data - not only because it's generally among the most accurate day of polling right before an election - but it's a number they'll want and need to point to historically when it comes to questioning their accuracy should there be any unexpected results in Tuesday's election, especially given that weekend polling is notorious for underestimating Republican vote levels.


Pollster John Zogby has been notorious over the years and his methodological fluctuations in these regards have historically been referred to as "Zogby's Secret Sauce".


But now Zogby has released a poll that shows McCain leading Obama nationally 48% - 47%.


And polling over the past two days shows Pennsylvania is now down to 4% within the margin of error (though Obama considers it in the bag and will no longer return there). The same polls also show 9% of PA voters are still undecided and it's not likely we'll find that voters in Pennsylvania and elsewhere have enjoy being repeatedly called selfish ignorant redneck racists as they have throughout this campaign by Barack Obama and his campaign surrogates.


There is still undecided consternation.


Meanwhile the markets continued to see Stocks Rise and settle nicely within an established trading range, completing an upside performance that proved to be the best in twenty four years.


However ... at this point it seems rather likely:


a) the Republican base is highly energized and all but the most publicity seeking members have come home and exhibiting the kind of voting support and enthusiasm that typically emanates from the final events in a prevailing campaign.
b) high numbers of undecided voters - maybe as high as 85% - will vote for McCain over Obama.
c) some significant percentage - maybe 3% or 4% - of Democratic voters, including a discernable chunk of Hillary! voters - will never admit it to pollsters or otherwise but will choose McCain in the certain and secure solitude of the voting booth.


These factors are accompanied by an apparent and perceivable momentum that is thrusting John McCain and Sarah Palin toward the finish line including an Obama size crowd appearance with Arnold at the Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio on Friday.


A couple weeks ago McCain's friends in the liberal media were encouraging him to give up and simply take a defeat in beating. Instead, McCain's renewed focus and refined attack stands in stark contrast to Bob Dole's 1996 campaign that would yield crowd turnouts in the hundreds at this stage in the campaign.


At this point there is no certain prediction that can be made.


Except ...


This election clearly is far closer than any media pundit will ever likely admit and there is a tremendous possibility that the country will see many long faces on Tuesday evening.


The key will not be in the exit polls, which the media will again further skew in a final attempt to stifle Republican turnout.


The key will be in discerning any levels of frustration or hesitation by the major media types being unable or unwilling to call states like Virginia or New Hampshire or Pennsylvania that will in any way lead to McCain's possibly winning the election.


At times the hints will be subtle. As the night grows they may show more panic in nature.



Win or lose - John McCain and Sarah Palin are completing a fine effort in closing out this presidential campaign and Barack Hussein Obama is once again finding it difficult to close the deal.


Gut Instinct: Longshot - *McCain* cobbles together enough electoral votes and wins in a stunning 'come from behind' victory! It's a very good bet that *McCain* will defy the skeptics in media and win the election on Tuesday.



The rest is up to the voters. GOTV!


ZOGBY - "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all. "Obama's lead among women declined, and it looks like it is occurring because McCain is solidifying the support of conservative women, which is something we saw last time McCain picked up in the polls. If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on." [Links]


UPSET: Obama seeks landslide but McCain predicts upset - McCain charged that Obama, bidding to become the first black president, "began his campaign in the liberal left lane of politics and has never left it. He's more liberal than a senator who calls himself a socialist," he added in Hanoverton, Ohio, a reference to Sen. Bernie Sanders, an independent from Vermont.


POLITICO: Off the plane - Washington Times and the New York Post, have lost their seats on the Obama plane, along with the Dallas Morning News. "We're trying to reach as many swing voters that we can and unfortunately had to make some tough choices. but we are accommodating these folks in every way possible," he said. The Post and the Morning News are both read primarily in states that aren't in play, but the Washington Times is read in Northern Virginia. Burton said the Chicago Tribune and the Chicago Sun-Times had returned to the plane, and confirmed that Ebony and Jet magazines have seats on the plane.


AP POLL: 1 in 7 voters (14%) still persuadable - Who are they? They look a lot like the voters who've already locked onto a candidate, though they're more likely to be white and less likely to be liberal. And they disproportionately backed Hillary Rodham Clinton's failed run for the Democratic nomination. For now, their indecision remains intact despite the fortunes that have been spent to tug people toward either McCain, the Republican, or the Democrat Obama. Fueling their uncertainty is a combination of disliking something about both candidates and frustration with this campaign and politics in general.



MAC IS BACK: McCain, Obama battle enters final weekend - Schwarzenegger, who starred in many action movies before turning to politics, said Obama's four years as a senator from Illinois paled in comparison to the 5 1/2 years McCain spent in a Vietnam prisoner-of-war camp. "John McCain has served his country longer in a POW camp than his opponent has served in the United States Senate," Schwarzenegger said. "Ladies and gentlemen, I only play an action hero in my movies. But John McCain is a real action hero," he said. McCain told the crowd he felt he had momentum. "I know a winning campaign when I see one," he said. "We're a couple of points back. Arnold said it best. The Mac is back. We need a new direction and we have to fight for it."


TODAY: On the presidential campaign trail - John McCain campaigns in Virginia before a scheduled appearance on NBC's "Saturday Night Live." Sarah Palin talks to voters in Florida. [McCain also makes a trek through must win Pennsylvania].





MORE: [News]     [Blogs]


Obama's aunt from Kenya has lived illegally in US since 2004, denied asylum request - Zeituni Onyango (zay-TUHN on-YANG-oh), referred to as "Aunti Zeituni" in the Democratic presidential candidate's memoir, was instructed to leave the United States by a U.S. immigration judge who denied her asylum request. ... Onyango, 56, is Obama's late father's half-sister, the Obama campaign has confirmed. She is not a relative whom Obama, 47, has discussed in campaign appearances and, unlike Obama's father and his maternal grandmother, is not someone who has been part of the public discussion about his personal life.

[The implications of the missing Aunt are three-fold - 1) reminds how bad the press is in the tank for Obama that they've promo'd his grandma, etc., but no known aunt. 2) should outrage the likes of Lou Dobbs and those prior critics of McCain on immigration vs. open borders of Obama. 3) shows how pathetic Obama is when it comes to truly taking care of people; on top of no private donations or charity by either Obamas or Bidens ... it's a poor picture in character and adds to unease about Obama (i.e. he can't close)]


FINALE: Obama + Biden are going out of their way to pitch up something big coming out this weekend ... this isn't what they're most afraid of. More likely it's even something worse like the Khalidi dinner speech; if there was one copy ... one would think there would have to be another and there's got to be at least one news person worth a single grain of salt with the ability and determination to get it. C'mon Carl Cameron - you dug up Bush's DUI on Sunday evening before the 2000 election ... how about digging in to the LA Times?






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