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Monday Oct 22, 2007

The smell of embers is whipping in the air.


We've received a reverse-911 call and other evacuation directives as were posted on the Admin Weblog.





These Santa Ana winds are amongst the strongest seen, averaging 50-80 MPH and making fires totally uncontrollable. These are also extremely strong for this fall season, especially, as the phenomenon typically experienced in January time frames usually features the stronger wind conditions.


At this time there appears to be nothing imminently threatening this immediate proximity but the fire source is clearly upwind, having jumped the corridor and now heading to the coast, so we have begun the first series of measures ie hosing down proximal areas that can easily trap embers.


FNC: Deadly Firestorm Ravages Southern California, Forcing Thousands to Flee - Things got worse early Monday, when several new fires sprouted in San Diego county, adding to about a dozen blazes that have already burned more than 40,000 acres.


Another impression is that San Diego County officials are much more aware of the potential and ongoing devestation awaiting, having been so terribly ignorant of such risks for years before witnessing the toll that finally proved to be the final straw in the ouster of former Governor Gray Davis (Arnold is now expected to tour nearby later today). Unfortunately there's not much officials can do at this point except provide warnings and evacuate the highest risk locations.





It's all in the hands of mother nature as these fires simply move too fast and furious. Unfortunately the ravages of fire are also a natural phenomenon essential for fostering growth of vegetation and maintaining the regional habitats. Most of the plants that grow in these areas ala Chaparral actually require periodic consumption by fire in order for a new generation of plant life to germinate.


RSF: Nearby Rancho Santa Fe, home to many celebrities (including Arnold) is preparing to evacuate as word arrives the police have begun assembling in formation down the street. The sky is turning ominously dark and red-orange fire rising sun barely visible through the smoke as fires approach our coastal corridor.


SOURCE: San Diego County fire(s) started by a downed power line and exploding transformer. If history is a guide it's just a matter of time before fire driven psychos get fueled by all the media coverage and begin to add cases of arson to the mix.


MALKIN: Michelle coordinates Live Blogging including The Gulbransen Family Blog (note air support should not be expected today given current weather + wind conditions).


CENTERS: Now Open for those in the path include Qualcomm Stadium and Del Mar Race Track.


AMMO: Ammunition left behind by gun owning homeowners creating additional challenges for firefighters encountering such burning structures.


POWER: Spikes and interim outages now being frequently reported by UPS systems.


WILD ANIMAL PARK: Has been spared so far and all of the animals are safe.


photo(Reuters) - A firefighter holds his helmet during a gust of wind while using a water canon on top of a fire truck to try to protect buildings that were in the path of a fast-moving wildfire burning through the Rancho Bernardo neighborhood of San Diego, California October 22, 2007. Fast-moving wildfires raged across Southern California on Monday, forcing at least 250,000 people to flee their homes and destroying hundreds of buildings as desperate fire officials called for help from other states. REUTERS/Fred Greaves (UNITED STATES)




UPDATE: 100K acres now burned, 250K people evacuated. I-15 (inland) has been re-opened though fires begin to take their toll in surrounding areas with numerous burning structures in Rancho Bernardo (RB) near Poway. In La Costa we're now seeing some white smoke which is a good sign that the closest fires are being extinguished and reports from the front are that the fires in nearby San Marcos are both coming under control but also at risk of jumping the fireline to Elfin Forest. Some helicopters are now able to operate as the winds are slowing some. Skies to the north are clear but extreme offshore conditions are blowing out what would otherwise be good surf ;)


SHORT LIVED: Progress limited as both temperatures and winds pick back up. Breadth of smoke visible from this location now increasing and the last wisps of friendly white smoke have vanished. Fire Marshall acknowledges they expect these fires will have to reach the beach before they can burn themselves out.


HIMMEL: Local personality Larry Himmel just watched his house burn. 1000 fire trucks now en route to San Diego. Coastal visibility now increasingly LOW.


LOOTERS: Increasing reports of looting in the evacuated areas as hoods are driving through afflicted areas and filling up pick-up trucks with valuables left behind by fleeing homeowners in the more affluent areas.


RSF: Rancho Santa Fe and Leucadia are now being officially evacuated and a backfire is being prepared just east of La Costa Oaks area.


RECORD: San Diego County Sheriff Bill Kolender - "This fire will probably be the worst fire this county has ever seen". Neighborhood friend who lives in the prestigious La Costa Oaks area was just told by swarming police it's a crapshoot - 50/50 likelihood of whether homes in this area will make it through the night ...


Associated Press - (APTN)
Oct. 22, 2007. 01:57 PM EST
San Diego officials have evacuated more than 250,000 people because of wildfires. At least one person has died in the fires, and Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency in seven counties. (Oct. 22)



GUARD: 800 National Guard Troops are being dispatched to assist in the efforts which remain at nature's mercy. Fallbrook now being evacuated ...


SCRIPPS RANCH: Now being evacuated. This is an area rich with eucalyptus trees. FYI Scripps, of newspaper legend, was intent on bringing the railroad to San Diego back in early prior century. To supply wood for the railroads eucalyptus trees were planted everywhere and they've taken well to the environment. They are also rich in oils that burn extremely hot when subjected to fire. Like Carlsbad, the Scripps Ranch area is also home to many professional businesses and dwellings.


ONSHORE: Coastal winds are now helping to deter progress of the flames with north county coastal regions seeing some typical afternoon northerly flow influencing things at this point in time (~22 MPH) with inland areas still seeing winds around 59 MPH. Temperatures remain relatively mild (~78 degrees). Areas of Chula Vista (south San Diego and east of San Diego Bay) and MCAS Miramar (formerly Top Gun) are now being evacuated.


CARLSBAD: Official "Voluntary" Evacuation now underway ... lots of ash & non-burning embers falling.


TWILIGHT: Brings settling of the winds and a valuable opportunity for some fire retardant drops in key spots while there's still light to fly under.


SPARED: Further threats to the local area were averted! The latest evacuations are now along the coast in Encinitas + Solana Beach down to Sorrento Valley.


TALLY: 9:00 PM PST - in North San Diego County: 650+ homes & 150+ businesses destroyed.


SAN DIEGUITO: River Valley likely focus of energy that could potentially see a classic California wildfire canyon race before the fire exhausts itself at some point approaching the ocean (where either a change in pressure or wind direction ... or, worst case, lack of fuel will burn itself out). Olivenhain (west of Rancho Santa Fe, south Encinitas) now evacuating in anticipation of such course.


DAY AFTER: Light winds with lots of soot + ash everywhere; extremely low visibility and smoke so thick the hill on the north side of La Costa is not really albeit increasingly visible. A quick perusal of local tv coverage reveals they're having difficulties finding / showing (many) homes on fire (they thrive on that) which is probably the best of all indicators. Total damage count in the county now exceeds 1000 homes (300+ in RB alone) and it's unclear how much damage was done in Ramona area, which is largely rural and where an attempted backfire ... backfired. Extremely quiet and seemingly deserted at first light, a few folks are starting to return to the neighborhood :)


POOLS: Residents returning to their homes will find their swimming pools now resemble the "black-bottom" variety - meaning they are filled with ash & soot + tons of leaves and other debris. If / as this is typical of the greatest "inconveniences" suffered, that's a welcome blessing compared to the fates of others left in the wake of the fires (and swimming pools may be all that's left in places where fire devestation totally cleared the surface).


photo(AP) - A California Fire air tanker bombs a hillside burning in the east end of Poway, Calif., Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2007. (AP Photo/Lenny Ignelzi)





MEDIA: A lot of people stepped up in this emergency and the media actually didn't do too poorly themselves, either. Obviously there is a difference in the stories & people behind the SD Fires and the corrupt Louisiana state + local government led perpetually helpless demanding handouts at the Louisiana Superdome following Hurricane Katrina. Probably the most obnoxious media was a determination to denigrate or chastize those who choose to stay behind and protect their homes and businesses from falling embers & looters, until the authorities order you to leave. Political Mavens conveys another remote perspective.


GATES: Bill's Rancho Santa Fe estate was saved ;)


LIFTING: Evacuation Order for Carlsbad now lifted 5:00 PM PST.


AP: Raging Calif. wildfires force 1M to flee - The fires also forced the evacuation of more than 350,000 houses, most of them in San Diego County. With the area's average household size of 2.6 people, that means the evacuation could encompass nearly 910,000 people. ... "It's basically a mass migration here in San Diego County. The numbers we're seeing are staggering," said Luis Monteagudo, a spokesman for the county's emergency effort.


MORE: Mark Jackson has some nice fire smoke filled sunset glass-off photos from the Oceanside Pier.


THURSDAY: President Bush to Visit North County SD






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